2024 Housing Market: Prices & Predictions

Falling house prices have plateaued but are unlikely to recover much before the end of the year.

While average asking prices jumped by just over £3,000 to £362,839 this month, the increase hardly offsets any price drops over recent months.

Property portal Rightmove expects asking prices will fall by around one per cent by the end of the year.

The firm also reports sales have soared by 16 per cent in the first six weeks of 2024 compared with a year ago.

Price sensitive market

"The market remains price-sensitive and appears to be operating at two speeds, with properties that are priced accurately being snapped up by budget-conscious buyers, whilst over-priced properties are left on the shelf," said Tim Bannister Rightmove's Director of Property Science.

"It's taking more than two weeks longer to find a buyer than at this time last year, with the average time to sell at its slowest since 2015."

The Rightmove research echoes a forecast from the government's Office of Budget Responsibility, which anticipates house prices to remain at their present level or fall by up to 2 per cent this year. This upgrade data was released alongside Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's Autumn Statement in November, predicting house prices will shed 4.7 per cent in 2024.

However, the predicted price changes are unlikely to affect every region evenly, depending on how many prices are for sale locally.

Regions with fewer homes on the market are likelier to see a flat market or a slight price increase, while those with more homes for sale could see prices fall.

London sees the biggest price fall

Official house price data from the Office for National Statistics puts the value of an average home at £285,000 - a loss of £4,000 over the previous 12 months.

Overall, house prices were down 1.4 per cent in 2023, although they improved from a decrease of 2.3 per cent reported in November.

House prices increased the most in the North West, where owners saw them rise 1.2 per cent. London experienced the most significant price drop - down 4.8 per cent.

Mixed messages from lenders

Selling times have extended to more than two months, with Rightmove quoting 66 days from going on the market to receiving an offer - 10 per cent lower than in the last 'normal' market of 2019.

One of Britain's largest mortgage lenders, Halifax, says house prices increased by 2.5 per cent in the past 12 months and 1.3 per cent since January. The average home is now worth £291,029 - an increase of £3,785 since January 2023.

Kim Kinnaird, director of Halifax Mortgages, said: "This is the fourth consecutive month that house prices have risen and, as a result, the pace of annual growth is now 2.5 per cent, the highest rate since January last year.

"The recent reduction of mortgage rates from lenders as competition picks up, alongside fading inflationary pressures and a still-resilient labour market, have contributed to increased confidence among buyers and sellers. This has resulted in a positive start to 2024's housing market.

"However, while housing activity has increased over recent months, interest rates remain elevated compared to the historic lows seen in recent years, and demand continues to exceed supply."

Nationwide, the other leading mortgage lender has announced a more modest house price increase.

The building society says prices dropped 0.2 per cent in the year despite rising 0.7 per cent in January.

The average house price is £257,656 - a £213 increase from December 2023.

Nationwide's chief economist Robert Gardner said: "While a rapid rebound in activity or house prices in 2024 appears unlikely, the outlook is looking a little more positive.

"There remains considerable variation in affordability across the country, with pressures particularly acute in London, the south of England and East Anglia. Scotland and the North remain the most affordable regions, with mortgage payments as a share of take-home pay much closer to their long-run average.

"These variations have led to stark differences emerging between those who would like to buy and those who are actually able to do so."